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including all playoff contenders
1. Patriots - best QB in the league, best coach in the league, one of the best defenses in the league (statistically, although i'm not really sold on it)... they're the clear favorite to win this year
2. Cowboys - i hesitated to put them here because the main 2 pieces on the offense have no playoff experience whatsoever, but you can't avoid what this team is doing. they just destroyed a playoff contender last night, and their offense is clicking on all cylinders. Dak is a young stud, Zeke is a top 3 RB, Dez is a top WR when healthy, Witten is an all time great TE, they have the best offensive line, the defense is starting to play better. i would not be surprised at all if they made the Superbowl (i don't think they will, but they have the best shot of all NFC teams imo, especially since they have homefield advantage).
3. Packers - everyone counted them out (including me), but this team is HOT now. Aaron Rodgers is playing like elite Aaron Rodgers, the team is practically healthy now (obviously w/o Lacy). my only concern is the defense, but they've seemed to improve greatly since their losing streak.
4. Giants - the Giants have just taken off in the past however many weeks, mainly because of their defense, which could potentially challenge the Broncos and Seahawks as the best in the league this year. Eli is holding this team back a little bit, but i believe he will get much better in the playoffs (for whatever reason).
5. Seahawks - defense wins championships, and although the loss of Earl Thomas will obviously hurt them, this defense is still top 3 in the league with Kam, Sherman, Bennett, Wagner, among others. they've somewhat struggled in recent weeks, but this team has the most or 2nd most playoff experience in the NFC, so people would be crazy to write them off
6. Steelers - we all know how great this offense is with Ben, Brown, and Bell. the main question is the defense for this team - which just came off a game where they allowed 27 points to an offense in the bottom half of the league. i don't doubt that they can put up points, but the question is can they stop good offenses from scoring? i don't think they can
7. Chiefs - as of right now, they're slotted at the 5th seed. if they get the #2 seed (which i expect them to), then i'm very confident that they can get as far as the AFC championship, perhaps even beating the Steelers. i've made it clear that i favor defenses in the playoffs, and the Chiefs have a top 5 defense, but it all depends on where they play. according to pro football reference, the defense allows opposing QBs to have a 66.9 passer rating when at Arrowhead, but a 95.4 passer rating when somewhere else. the defense is the key to this team, and if the Chiefs play a team like the Steelers in Pittsburgh or the Patriots in New England, i don't see them winning. not to mention, i don't believe Alex Smith is good enough to lead the team if and when the defense is off.
8. Falcons - this is basically the Steelers of the NFC. we know their offense is the best in the league, but what can the defense do? i don't have faith that the Falcons defense can get enough stops against the best offenses in the NFC in crunch time. Matt Ryan doesn't exactly have a good history in the playoffs, either. you can blame it on offensive line, injuries, whatever, but he doesn't.
9. Lions - they might not make the playoffs, but if they do, i don't believe they will get far. the defense is coming off a game where they allowed 42 points to the Cowboys. and Stafford, although he started off hot last night, got cold after the first 3 drives, and i don't think his finger will much better before the playoffs.
10. Redskins - this team might not make the playoffs either, but this offense is pretty good. Cousins is having a career year, they have 2 home run receivers, a top 3 tight end when healthy. but their defense is atrocious and a great liability to their playoff chances. Josh Norman has not improved their defense too much, i don't have confidence that they can stop any of the top offenses.
11. Raiders - not having that first round bye and home field advantage in the 2nd round will hurt the Raiders A LOT, especially considering their situation, but i figure that's what's going to happen. i don't have faith whatsoever that McGloin can go to Denver and beat the Denver defense. however, i rank them above the Texans and Dolphins for one reason - they still have a really good offense with Cooper, Crabtree, Murray, and that offensive line. i do not think this defense is good enough to go far like some teams above, but the difference here is their offense is still somewhat capable even with Carr gone.
12. Dolphins - the loss of Tannehill hurts, but Matt Moore has played surprisingly somewhat well. still, this team just isn't good enough to get anywhere in the playoffs, even if Tannehill was healthy. MAYBE they could beat the Texans with Matt Moore, but i wouldn't bet on it
13. Texans - if i haven't reiterated it enough, i love defense, and i think it's the key to get far in the playoffs. STATISTICALLY, this team is one of the best defenses in the league. but i don't buy it. their schedule was not hard at all, they play in a weak division, they're still only 10th in points allowed. not to mention, the offense is truly horrible. Osweiler is a joke, Savage looked promising against the Jags but not so much against the Bengals. this team is built for a first round exit.
14. Buccaneers - this team is 99.9% eliminated from playoff contention, which is why they're dead last. i'd rank them ahead of the Raiders if they WERE in serious playoff contention. Jameis has shown signs of greatness, offense is pretty solid, defense is bleh. but i would trust this team to get further than teams led by Matt McGloin, Tom Savage, and Matt Moore. |