Official Bethescam fanboy of the VGC here!
I'm here to answer the question once and for all, out of all of the factions in the power vaccum of the fallout universe, which one will end out on top. This theory is not 100% accurate and probably will be proven wrong over future installments of the franchise, but here is my take on the future of the world of fallout. Note how I composed all of this data while thinking about this question in the shower.
Let's start out west.
First, let's go over a faction that I believe has better chances of hitting the moon with a bullet then saving the united states. Both of the New Vegas factions (House, and Yes Man). First, let's start with a main problem, ambition. House's ambition in the long term is to make a spaceship and send people out into space to have a better life. This objective is hundreds of years away from completion, and lacks any sort of backing from House himself or the methods which he will use to construct this rocket. Yes Man practically has no ambition, as his choices are led by the main protagonist (the courier), and he has no ideals on taking over anything beyond Vegas. However, there's one even bigger problem then a lack of ambition both of them will have to deal with. The NCR's militarization of several spots around Vegas, and the fact neither of them care. The sharecropper farms, camp gulf, and camp McCarran are all being militarized by the New California Republic. The NCR is also openly planning on annexing the strip themselves, so at some point they will just do it. Honestly, I also don't see them helping out the legion due to there irrational ideals, so were going to cross Vegas off of the list (rip house).
Next, let's look at a major faction, which has a lot of organizational problems that will lead to its downfall in the next 10 years. Caesar's Legion, which is led by a slowly-dying Caesar, will have to deal with many problems in the future. Alexander the Great of Greece conquered tribe after tribe, building a great civilization. However, whenever Alexander died, his empire fell apart
and Greece was once again a lost civilization in the test of time. This is what will happen to Caesar. The Legion don't pledge allegiance to The Legion. They pledge allegiance to Caesar. When Caesar dies, the Legion will collapse in on itself. Say this is somehow avoided and they do get a new Caesar, and also assume that they take the dam. They will have complications when they wage war with the NCR. The further they get into NCR territory, the further the one thing that stops them will hurt them. Technology and medicine. More they go deep into the NCR, the more the NCR will throw at them. So I will rule out the legion for now.
Finally, the one faction from the west that will move on and become a real contender for victory. The New California Republic. Not only do they have the technology and manpower to win the west, they have the democratic system to avoid collapse. Sure, #OliverOut. But when hes gone the military will be one of the top in the nation. They have a system which worked in pre-war, which will most likely work out in post-apocalyptia.
Now to the east:
I'm ruling every FO4 faction out (other then the BoS which I will get too). The Minutemen is only interested in local affairs (I mean they could become a policing force but lets be real), and the railroad will be the railroad. #YellowToastersMatter. Canonically, the Institute would be destroyed (most likely canonically) so I don't see them changing humanity by implementing a human-synth cross-breed.
And to the BoS and the Enclave.
BoS:
The Brotherhood of Steel will be the biggest immeadiate competition to the NCR there is. The Brotherhood have the 1 up on the NCR in technology, but in manpower, the Brotherhood will fail to keep up. The East Coast Chapter will continue going on, but the west coast brotherhood will be defeated by the NCR. Also, the chain of command and tactics of the west coast brotherhood don't work in practice (although they work well in theory). So I don't expect the BoS to be a huge challenge (rip maxson).
Enclave:
The Enclave just simply won't compete. They get destroyed too much. I'm serious. After the defeat at Raven Rock, The enclave is just a shadow of what they once we're. Maybe they can build up in time to give the NCR a fight, but with Brotherhood technology on the NCR's side, they will have the upper hand
So the conclusion:
I have composed the percentage odds of what I think could be the winner of this confusing race for the United States. Note how this is not at all true, and is just my opinion.
NCR 70%
Enclave 10%
Brotherhood 10%
Legion 6%
Institute (if they somehow survive) 3%
Other 1%
Fin. |