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www det 270towin det com
det = .
show gyaz of ur predictions, u can update if u want
heres mine :
f23938c1936d7c5ecc2013a5860da866
ohio too close to call rn after debates i should be able to predict
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lol why do you have New Jersey, Hawaii, Maine and Virginia red and South Carolina blue?
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hawaii i guess i clicked wrong
new jersey is red because they have trump there its not gonna be a perfect victory but i mean will be close so might have to wait to debate on that, leaning red tho
virginia is close but i think its leaning red
ohio is still to close
south carolina because of that trans gender thing
updated with new colors and fixed
4afefa18a4af3270bcade2ad1430ae7f
colorado = likely democrat
flordia = likely republican
south carolina = likely democrat
virginia = likely republican
new jersey = leaning republican
maine = 3 for democrats safe, 1 for republicans leaning (they split for some odd reason)
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################################################ |
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ugh okay
lets just cover my swing states
Florida - Democrat
Ohio - Democrat
Literally nothing else matters. |
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tracking:
/246af0ed9a1483f0be1a9e7976eece70
if these polls hold and aren't terribly misguided then i see no way trump could win
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Made some changes after silly mistakes and used recent poll data, as well as my gut.
Map Projection :
/d8d8fa68c6bebdf0f63c15c95bd9838e
Changes :
Colorado = Leaning Democrat (I've seen ads trump has been hitting colorado recently) WAS Likely Democrat
Florida = Leaning Democrat (using polls) WAS Likely Republican
South Carolina = Safe Republican (silly mistake fix) WAS Likely Democrat
Virginia = Leaning Democrat (using polls) WAS Likely Republican
New Jersey = Safe Democrat (silly mistake fix) WAS Leaning Republican
Maine = Safe Democrat (all 4, silly mistake fix) WAS 3/4 Democrat, 1/4 Leaning Republican
Ohio = Leaning Democrat (using polls) WAS Neutral
Pennsylvania =Likely Democrat (using instinct/gut) WAS Safe Democrat
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florida is actually beginning to lean republican (+0.1 trump yesterday, +0.7 today)
a pretty major battleground for the republicans if they want a real chance of winning
probably a reaction to hillary's health concerns (and the campaigns weak response)
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More updates after new polls and Hillary health scare
Map Projection :
/b858125fed0c05fb9c041be40dc196e9
Changes :
Colorado - WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
Ohio - WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
Flordia - WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
All 47 Other states - Remained the same.
Those are the only updates for now
3rd Party Candidates winning/leading a state will result in a MARKED NEUTRAL (with me saying 3rd party and who it is, and leaning likely or safe)
SCORE :
Clinton 264 - 274 Trump
SWING STATES THAT WILL BE CRUCIAL :
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
SWING STATES THAT WILL BENEFIT, BUT AREN'T CRUCIAL :
Philadelphia
Virginia
SAFE STATES :
Alabam Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota,Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. |
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Debate in 3 days, gonna be sweet
but it's on my sisters birthday
rip
regardless expect big updates after the debate
Map Projection :
/7c64bfbb001f0b4c0b32bd390b07bf59
Changes :
North Carolina - WAS Safe Republican NOW Likely Republican
Changing that but it doesn't effect tally or really anything else, just making it more accurate with polls
SCORE :
Clinton 264 - 274 Trump
270 points at minimum to be elected
SWING STATES THAT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR ELECTION :
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
SWING STATES THAT ARE DEMOCRAT :
Philadelphia
Virginia
SWING STATES THAT ARE REPUBLICAN :
North Carolina
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
SAFE STATES :
Alabam Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota,Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. |
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1st Presidential Debate about 30 mins away!
Expect huge updates and maybe some other SFers to get involved in this
Map Projection :
/7c64bfbb001f0b4c0b32bd390b07bf59
Changes :
None, just a bump
SCORE :
Clinton 264 - 274 Trump
270 points at minimum to be elected
SWING STATES THAT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR ELECTION :
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
SWING STATES THAT ARE DEMOCRAT :
Philadelphia
Virginia
SWING STATES THAT ARE REPUBLICAN :
North Carolina
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
SAFE STATES :
Alabam Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota,Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. |
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RADEKBONKJoin Date: 2016-07-01
Post Count: 95 |
My full prediction.
imguuuuuuur
/UrkNnSw |
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radek u can smash me babe <3
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Kind of forgot about this but regardless let's get right into the predictions
2st Presidential Debate 1 day away yeet
Vice presidential debate ### ############# Trump... statements.. that were found out will prob knock him out if he can't get back this debate. He really needs to focus on all of the Clinton scandals to get media attention off of him. though he has been hitting Colorado hard with ads and I've yet to see an "I'm with her" yard sign so I mean \_'-'_/
I have changed the way I have states ranked
if the polls conclude in an AVG that will result in a TIE it will be considered NEUTRAL
if the polls conclude in an AVG that is +0.1 - +4.9 it will be considered LEANING
if the polls conclude in an AVG that is +5 - +9.9 it will be considered LIKELY
if the polls conclude in an AVG that is +10 it will be considered SAFE
all states will run through this test for completely good information
algorithm for AVG will be poll numbers / # of polls = AVG
using RealClearPolitics polls and 270towinit polls, and common sense for Texas b/c it had biased poll information (it would put it in a spot where it's not safe republican when we all know it is) and D.C. b/c there was 0 poll information I could find on the first few results on google
after Maine, I really only used 270towin b/c it took too long for me to google EACH state and D.C. and look for RealClearPolitics (sometimes it didn't even show what I wanted) so that's why they are rounded up b/c they do that automatically
I AM ALSO ONLY USING CLINTON V TRUMP INFO, NO 3RD PARTY (let's admit it here, they will have no shot whenever or whoever runs for them)
Command+Vbin if any of this is ###'d : /3USXVs3E
just write what Command+V does and *30m, then the /3USXVs3E
*=dot
3=c
0=o
ONLY IN THE CASE OF *30m
Map Projection :
/ae96d424d47456a6c086c0500c788177
Changes :
Colorado WAS Leaning Republican NOW Likely Democrat
Connecticut WAS Safe Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
Flordia WAS Leaning Republican NOW Leaning Democrat
Georgia WAS Safe Republican NOW Leaning Republican
Indiana WAS Safe Republican NOW Likely Republican
Iowa WAS Safe Republican NOW Leaning Republican
Maine WAS Safe Democrat NOW Leaning Democrat
Michigan WAS Safe Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
Minnesota WAS Safe Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
Mississipi WAS Safe Republican NOW Leaning Republican
Nevada WAS Safe Republican NOW Leaning Democrat
New Hampshire WAS Safe Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
New Jersey WAS Safe Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
North Carolina WAS Likely Republican NOW Leaning Democrat
Virginia WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
Wisconsin WAS Safe Democrat NOW Likely Democrat
SCORE :
SAFE STATES & D.C. ONLY
Clinton 166-158 Trump
SWING STATES ONLY
Clinton 175 - 39 Trump
ALL STATES
Clinton 341-197 Trump
270 points at minimum to be elected
SWING STATES :
Colorado (it's at +7.3 Clinton AVG)
Connecticut (it's at +9.25 Clinton AVG)
Flordia (it's at +3 Clinton AVG)
Georgia (it's at +4.7 Trump AVG)
Indiana (it's at a +8 Trump AVG)
Iowa (it's at a +4.7 Trump AVG)
Maine (main 3) (it's at a +4 Clinton AVG)
Michigan (it's at a +7 Clinton AVG)
Minnesota (it's at a +6 Clinton AVG)
Mississipi (it's at a +2 Trump AVG)
Nevada (it's at a +3 Clinton AVG)
New Hampshire (it's at a +6 Clinton AVG)
New Jersey (it's at a +6 Clinton AVG)
North Carolina (it's at a +3 Clinton AVG)
Ohio (it's at a +1 Clinton AVG)
Pennsylvania (it's at a +5 Clinton AVG)
Virginia (it's at a +7 Clinton AVG)
Wisconsin (it's at +5 Clinton AVG)
SAFE STATES & D.C. :
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and, Wyoming.
Also, quick question SFers that for some reason are still reading this thread (ty) or skipped to here :
Do you think the USA should switch to Popular Vote or is the Electoral College system the best for us? Or do you have a system of your own that you think would work?
Also if you could fire in predictions that would be neat too and u don't have to use poll data if you dont want to u can use ur gut <3
TL:DR - answer questions above pls ^ and clinton destroys trump after I actually use a lot of poll info that took me over 2 hours probably |
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my prediction: /24be065d6fffdc75c76ca4cd1b5659bc
Iᴛ ᴀɪɴᴛ ᴇᴀsʏ, ʙᴇɪɴɢ Cʜᴇᴇsᴇʏ. |
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/da9d43a3351041b11dbb82f6ea7b677b
Also, USA should switch to popular vote. The electoral college was made in and made for the 18th century and can cause the winner to be the loser of the popular vote (see: 2000 election)
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After the debate, here we go. Election Predictions! Trump really won that debate.
He put those comments behind him and roasted Hillary. Final Debate will decide a few states and make a FINAL Prediction for Nevada. The other 2 states were a debate was hosted (New York and Missouri) are both safe states and will be permanent. Also, I get to go to Cincinnati Ohio (any SFers in the area?) for like 4 days so will make my FINAL prediction based off of ads I see. Might even catch an Indians ALCS game too, though very unlikely.
Map Projection :
/805a253c1f684f4b2d42d5aee56aa33c
Changes :
Colorado WAS Likely Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
Flordia WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
Georgia WAS Leaning Republican NOW Likely Republican
Iowa WAS Leaning Republican NOW Likely Republican
Mississipi WAS Leaning Republican NOW Likely Republican
Nevada WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
North Carolina WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican
Virginia WAS Likely Democrat NOW Leaning Democrat
SCORE :
SAFE STATES & D.C. ONLY
Clinton 170-158 Trump
SWING STATES ONLY
Clinton 94 - 116 Trump
ALL STATES & D.C.
Clinton 264-274 Trump
270 points at a minimum to be elected.
Trump wins by 4 points.
SWING STATES :
Colorado, Connecticut, Flordia, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississipi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
SAFE STATES & D.C. :
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming. |
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Better Map Projection (ad was in the other one) : /c8f5d555485de125912f1508b99ce2c7 |
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"Trump really won that debate. He put those comments behind him and roasted Hillary."
In your dreams. All four reliable polls that we have showed Clinton winning the debate, and also nobody will forget those comments he made because of the violence against women it advocates.
"Colorado WAS Likely Democrat NOW Leaning Republican"
Monmouth (A+ pollster) had Clinton up 11 in CO and that was before the Trump Tapes
"Flordia WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican"
Trump hasn't been leading in any respectable FL poll since forever.
"North Carolina WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican"
Even heavily Republican-leaning pollsters have Clinton leading here.
"Nevada WAS Leaning Democrat NOW Leaning Republican"
PPP just got a poll with Clinton up 4.
"Virginia WAS Likely Democrat NOW Leaning Democrat"
I would call Virginia a safe state at this point. Clinton has a 92% chance of winning in VA according to 538.
Also, you have Arizona as a safe state when 538 has Clinton winning there and Mississippi as a swing state? Please never talk politics again.
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Camboo6Join Date: 2011-02-04
Post Count: 20651 |
wth he's not even close to winning what are u talking about
no 1-2 |
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bump
predictions staying the same |
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189289323c438ed741c4d52e8459392f
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